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Record millions are being spent on endless advertisements and breathless mailers in 140 General Assembly districts across Virginia, but, in truth, the state’s Nov. 7 legislative elections boil down to a handful of races that will determine who wins the big prize:
If the GOP can flip just two seats in the Senate, where Democrats are defending a 22-18 majority, Youngkin gets an even split where tie votes will be decided by Republican Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears.
That, plus protecting the status quo in the House of Delegates, where Republicans enjoy a 52-48 advantage, would give Youngkin consolidated power to enact a sweeping conservative agenda. He could impose a 15-week ban on abortion, with exceptions, as well as permanent tax cuts and looser environmental standards, steering Virginia to the right and raising his national profile.
The math is even simpler for Democrats, who need only hang on to the Senate or flip a couple of seats in the House to block all of Youngkin’s plans.
New political maps have scrambled things a bit this year, leading to a wave of retirements and ensuring that at least a third of each chamber will turn over to fresh faces. Drawn by the Supreme Court of Virginia instead of the General Assembly, thanks to a voter-approved referendum that created a bipartisan redistricting process, the maps broke the usual cycle in which incumbents and the party in power engineer districts that protect themselves.
Instead, the new maps resulted in a state almost evenly split between the two parties — though, because of recent demographic and political shifts, Democrats have a slight overall advantage. According to an analysis of voting patterns in previous elections by the nonpartisan Virginia Public Access Project, the new boundaries created 48 House districts that favor Democrats by at least 5 percentage points and 45 districts that favor Republicans by a similar amount.
That leaves seven districts in the middle, almost evenly split — the “swing” districts where the parties have sunk the most money and effort trying to eke out a victory.
Similarly, on the Senate side, the VPAP analysis found 20 districts that favor Democrats by at least 5 points and 16 that favor Republicans — leaving four districts that could go either way.
Those districts, almost all suburban in character, comprise the race-within-a-race where each side is jockeying for any slight advantage in hopes of winning those extra seats needed to create a majority. Here candidates will sometimes blur the party lines; in a suburban Richmond House district, for instance, Democratic incumbent Del. Rodney T. Willett has emphasized that he agreed with Youngkin on some issues, and his opponent, Republican Riley Shaia, said she disagrees with her party on abortion and would not favor changing current law, which allows the procedure through the second trimester (about 26 weeks) and into the third if three doctors agree on necessity.
Abortion has been a particularly high-profile issue in these tight suburban districts, with each side trying to paint the other as extremist: Democrats accusing Republicans of seeking a total ban, Republicans claiming Democrats favor abortion after birth.
In the final days of the campaign, the two sides have concentrated a late burst of spending on the very closest races, pumping up totals to levels never seen in Virginia legislative elections.
So on election night, here are the races that Democratic and Republican insiders will be watching most closely, charting their separate paths to the majority through the same parts of the state:
Republican Karen Greenhalgh, 67, a former small business owner who has managed a crisis pregnancy center, is seeking a second term while running in a new House District 97 in Virginia Beach. She’s up against Democrat Michael Feggans, 40, a tech entrepreneur and retired Air Force veteran.
Their district covers the central portion of this military-heavy city and has swung both ways in recent elections. In the 2022 congressional election, it went for Democratic incumbent Rep. Elaine Luria, who wound up losing overall to Republican Jen A. Kiggans. But the year before, Youngkin won the district in his gubernatorial race against Democrat Terry McAuliffe.
Both parties have poured money into the House race. Greenhalgh has raised more than $2.7 million, with a third of that coming in just three weeks in October. Youngkin’s Spirit of Virginia PAC pumped about $240,000 into her campaign during that month, with Republican Party-related committees kicking in another $320,000 at the same time, according to VPAP.
Feggans has raised even more — about $3.26 million. The House Democratic Caucus gave his campaign about $650,000 during October, and Clean Virginia — a vehicle for Charlottesville megadonor Michael Bills — supplied $200,000 during the month, as well.
Feggans has run hard on the abortion issue, highlighting Greenhalgh’s work at the crisis pregnancy center, which aims to steer women away from the procedure. He also emphasized gun control, while noting that he is a gun owner, and funding for public education.
Greenhalgh has said she supports Youngkin’s call for a ban on abortions after 15 weeks, with exceptions. She sponsored a bill this year requiring a woman to provide written consent for an abortion, which passed the House on a party-line vote but died in the Senate. She also sponsored a bill requiring school athletes to compete as the gender they were designated at birth, which similarly passed the House but died in the Senate.
Republican incumbent Del. Kim Taylor, 44, an auto repair shop owner, is seeking a second term against Democratic challenger Kimberly Pope Adams, 40, an auditor at Virginia State University, in House District 82 south of Richmond. VPAP rates it as the closest district in the state, leaning just barely Republican by half of a percentage point.
The district has the city of Petersburg at its heart, but sprawls east into Prince George and Surry counties and west into Dinwiddie County. While Petersburg is heavily African American, the counties are largely White, so the district is racially balanced and divided sharply between urban and rural issues.
Youngkin has campaigned heavily with Taylor, who is White and pulled off arguably the biggest upset in the 2021 House races by defeating a Black incumbent Democrat in what then was a more heavily Black district. Taylor had drawn massive support from White Republicans in the counties, which then amounted to a smaller portion of the district, while turnout in Petersburg was lackluster.
This year, the newly drawn district is considered a toss-up, having voted narrowly for Youngkin for governor in 2021 but for Democrat A. Donald McEachin for Congress in 2022.
Taylor has benefited from Youngkin’s “Partnership for Petersburg” project, which is aimed at steering public and private resources toward the city to help solve its deep problems of crime, lack of health care, poor educational results and lack of economic development. Every time Youngkin holds a partnership event there, he invites Taylor to share in the credit.
But Democrats have rallied heavily behind Adams, who is Black, and early vote turnout in the district has been among the highest in the state, according to VPAP. Adams has raised a little over $2.7 million, compared with a little under $2.5 million for Taylor.
VPAP rates House District 21 in western Prince William County as the second-most competitive district in the state, leaning red by just eight-tenths of a point.
It’s an open seat, with Republican John Stirrup, 66, a former Prince William County supervisor and chief of staff to then-Rep. Tom Coburn (R-Okla.), vying with Democrat Josh Thomas, 35, a commercial real estate lawyer who served in Afghanistan with the Marines.
Western Prince William has its share of suburban neighborhoods but trends more rural than the rest of the Northern Virginia county. Abortion took center stage in the race over the summer after Stirrup was surreptitiously recorded by an abortion rights activist saying he would support a “total ban” on the procedure.
Otherwise, both candidates have campaigned on reducing the cost of living for families and improving schools. Stirrup, though, has emphasized law and order and protecting farmlands and battlefields from development, while Thomas has emphasized affordable housing, solving transportation problems and protecting the environment.
Thomas has raised about $3.2 million, including a massive October infusion of about $1.2 million from the House Democratic Caucus, according to VPAP — signifying the down-to-the wire nature of the race.
Stirrup has raised almost $2.1 million, with a similar — but smaller — last-minute barrage of about $250,000 from Spirit of Virginia.
The Willett-Shaia race in Henrico County outside Richmond falls into the category of very close races that could indicate whether one party or the other is having an especially good night. Another is the suburban Richmond contest between Democrat Susanna Gibson, a nurse practitioner, and Republican David Owen, a retired home builder.
Gibson was considered a top Democratic prospect before news broke in September that she had performed sex online with her husband and sought monetary tips from viewers. Gibson’s campaign seemed to pause after the scandal, and her fundraising dropped off. But she has still raised more than Owen, according to VPAP, and in recent weeks returned with ads centered on empowering women and protecting access to abortion. Republicans hit back with a salacious mailer about Gibson, all of which suggests that the race is still very much alive.
And in the Fredericksburg area, former Democratic delegate Joshua Cole, a pastor, is locked in a tight race with Republican Lee Peters III, an officer in the Stafford County Sheriff’s Department. Cole has been one of the top fundraisers among all House candidates, hauling in about $2 million during the month of October. Peters raised about $900,000 in that same period.
A pair of political newcomers — Democrat Russet Perry and Republican Juan Pablo Segura — are battling for what could prove to be the most hard-fought and expensive seat in Richmond’s upper chamber.
Their Senate District 31 covers a swath of Loudoun and Fauquier counties that favored Youngkin by a 0.6 percent smidgen but went blue by 5.6 points in last year’s congressional races.
Perry, 39, is a former prosecutor and CIA officer often likened to Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D-Va.), who also worked in a covert capacity for the spy agency.
Segura, 35, is a Republican and entrepreneur whose ventures range from high-tech health care to doughnuts. He also is the son of an Argentina-born billionaire who has helped bankroll the campaign. Perry has played up her support for abortion rights with a “Russet for Roe” tour. She has tried to paint Segura an extremist on the issue.
Segura is vowing to enhance “parental rights” in public education and has sought to portray Perry as soft on crime.
Perry has led in fundraising, $6.1 million to his $5 million, with both receiving massive infusions in the first three weeks of October. Perry raised nearly $2.7 million over the period, the bulk of that from the Senate Democratic Caucus, while Segura raised $2.1 million, more than half of that from Segura’s Renew Virginia PAC, which is almost entirely funded by his father, a PhD economist who built a fortune on “intelligent immigration security systems.”
State Sen. Siobhan S. Dunnavant (R-Henrico) and Del. Schuyler T. VanValkenburg (D-Henrico) are battling over a suburban Richmond district that VPAP rates as likely blue, not among the most competitive.
Senate District 16 favored Democrat Terry McAuliffe over Youngkin by 6 points in 2021 and gave Democrats a 10-point win in last year’s congressional midterms. But Republicans have continued pouring big bucks into Dunnavant’s campaign, apparently hoping the eight-year incumbent can survive the new political lines that pushed her from swing territory into bluer ’burbs.
A practicing obstetrician-gynecologist who has delivered thousands of babies and runs on the slogan “Dunnavant Delivers,” Dunnavant, 59, is part of a four-sibling political dynasty otherwise based in Virginia Beach. (Her brothers are former Virginia Beach delegate Chris Stolle, recently retired Virginia Beach sheriff Ken Stolle and Virginia Beach Commonwealth’s Attorney Colin Stolle.)
VanValkenburg, 41, who has broad ties to the community as a high school civics teacher, has been in the House since 2018.
Both candidates have leaned into abortion, each painting the other as an extremist on the issue in TV ads and glossy mailers clogging area airwaves and post boxes.
VanValkenburg has said he supports upholding current Virginia law. Dunnavant supports the 15-week limit Youngkin is calling for but with an additional exception: in cases of severe fetal anomalies. But unlike Youngkin, she would put a time limit on the exceptions, allowing them only up to the point of viability, which she says ranges from 22 to 24 weeks of gestation.
Both candidates have broken with their parties at times, Dunnavant to support some LGBTQ+ rights legislation in 2020 and VanValkenburg that same year to back the creation of a bipartisan commission to draw political maps.
Theirs is becoming one of the most expensive Senate races of the cycle, with both having raised a little more than $5 million — $2 million of that between Oct. 1 and Oct. 26 alone, according to VPAP. The largest late donations to each came from party leaders — Youngkin’s PAC gave Dunnavant $529,000 in the first three weeks of October, and the Virginia Senate Democratic Caucus supplied $640,000 in that period to VanValkenburg — suggesting that both camps see the race as highly competitive in the homestretch.
Aside from Dunnavant, Sen. T. Montgomery “Monty” Mason (D-Williamsburg) is the only other sitting senator in a tough fight for reelection. He faces Republican Danny Diggs in Senate District 24, Hampton Roads swing territory that includes Williamsburg and part of Newport News.
Mason, 56, had been in reliably blue territory, but redistricting thrust him into a highly competitive district, where Youngkin beat McAuliffe by 3.4 points in 2021 but Democrats squeaked past Republicans in last year’s congressional midterms.
Mason, who has a background in business and real estate, touts his support for education, tax cuts, abortion rights and gun control.
Diggs, 66, who served as sheriff for Poquoson and York County for more than two decades, has promised to repeal what he calls “soft on crime” laws, support gun rights, cut gas and grocery taxes, and ban abortion after 15 weeks, with the same exceptions Youngkin backs.
The two have hammered each other with particularly negative and pervasive advertisements, signifying the high stakes and Mason’s vulnerability. Mason has led in overall fundraising, $5 million to Diggs’s $3.9 million. Both raised $1.8 million in October, with the Democratic Caucus plowing $950,000 into Mason’s campaign and Youngkin’s PAC giving $690,000 to Diggs.
Voters in state Senate District 27 will see three names on the ballot: Republican Tara Durant, Democrat Joel Griffin and independent Monica Gary. Also in the mix is Matt Strickland, who mounted a write-in campaign after losing the June GOP primary to Durant.
Gary and Strickland are considered extreme long shots based on their paltry fundraising, but they could play spoiler in a tight race. Gary, a left-leaning but independent former stripper-turned-minister-turned-Stafford County supervisor, has potential to draw votes from the Democrat, while Strickland, 40, a pandemic lockdown-defying grilled cheese restaurateur, might appeal to the GOP’s MAGA base.
The contest is playing out in competitive territory that includes Fredericksburg and parts of Stafford and Spotsylvania counties. The district favored Youngkin over McAuliffe by 8.5 points two years ago but then flipped narrowly blue in last year’s congressional contest.
Griffin, 49, a Marine Corps veteran and government contractor who also owns a restaurant in downtown Fredericksburg, has tried to present himself as a centrist in this military-heavy community while pushing heavily on abortion rights in ads. He has accused Durant of being an “extremist” on the issue. Durant signaled she was open to considering a stricter ban than Youngkin’s 15-week plan in a recording made secretly by an abortion rights activist posing as an abortion foe, the Richmond Times-Dispatch reported.
Griffin has also often cited his work lobbying in Richmond to pass “Gwyneth’s Law,” in honor of his late daughter, to require CPR training for Virginia public school teachers and high school students.
Durant, 51, a former Catholic schoolteacher and self-described Marine wife, has stuck to Youngkin’s playbook on education and parental rights while also playing up her support of law enforcement as she points to crime and public safety.
In previous campaigns and in this one, she has said an “angry mob” of “rioters” surrounded her vehicle when she drove into a city-sanctioned Black Lives Matter protest in Fredericksburg in 2020. Durant pressed charges against two teenagers who she said blocked her car. One defendant was found not guilty and charges were dropped against the other, who never attended the demonstration and proved it in court, according to the Free-Lance Star newspaper in Fredericksburg.
Griffin and Durant each hauled in seven figures in October alone, signaling that both parties see the seat very much in play.
Griffin had the financial edge, raising about $3.8 million in all — $2 million of that in the most recent period. Just over half of his October fundraising ($1.3 million) came from the Senate Democratic Caucus. Durant has raised about $3 million overall and $1.7 million in October, with Youngkin’s PAC supplying $600,000 of that last-minute infusion.
Gary has raised a little more than $241,000, including about $28,000 in the October period. Strickland reached the low six figures ahead of the primary, but his haul dwindled to $110 in the first three weeks of October.
Del. Emily M. Brewer (R-Isle of Wight) and Del. Clinton L. Jenkins (D-Suffolk) are competing for an open seat in Senate District 17, true swing territory that spans the state’s Hampton Roads and Southside regions.
Youngkin notched a 5-point victory there in 2021, and Democrats eked a 1-point win in last year’s congressional midterms.
Brewer has been considered a rising GOP star since she assumed office in 2018 at age 33, then the youngest Republican woman to join the House.
She defeated NASCAR driver Hermie Sadler in a bitter primary battle and has been running on support for lower taxes and school choice, including a plan to allow public school funds to “follow the child” into a private school. Describing herself as a “child of adoption,” she has spoken in favor of Youngkin’s 15-week abortion ban and touts her work to streamline adoption and foster care systems.
Jenkins, 61, a member of the House since 2020, is a former shipyard worker who serves as a Baptist minister and works in real estate. He counts protection of abortion rights, improving public education and preventing a rollback of the state’s gun-control laws as top issues. He touts his support for boosting the minimum wage and giving pay increases to teachers, state troopers and state employees.
Brewer leads in fundraising, $2.3 million to Jenkins’s $1.7 million, with the Democrat hitting that total only after his party’s Senate Caucus pumped $834,000 into his campaign in October.
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