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With help from Eli Okun, Garrett Ross and Bethany Irvine
SPEAK, MEMORY — Today marks the 250th day in Russian detention for EVAN GERSHKOVICH. “That is 250 days too many,” WSJ Editor-in-Chief EMMA TUCKER writes this morning. “It is time to bring Evan home.” A letter from the Gershkovich family
WHITE HOUSE INCREASES URGENCY ON UKRAINE — In a letter to Congress released this morning, the White House is blunt: “We are out of money to support Ukraine in this fight.”
The message from Budget Director SHALANDA YOUNG to House and Senate leaders uses the most alarming language yet mustered by President JOE BIDEN’s administration in its attempts to squeeze more money for Ukraine out of Congress.
“I want to be clear: without congressional action, by the end of the year we will run out of resources to procure more weapons and equipment for Ukraine and to provide equipment from U.S. military stocks. There is no magical pot of funding available to meet this moment. We are out of money — and nearly out of time.” Read the letter … More from Connor O’Brien
Young says failing to provide the funds “will kneecap Ukraine on the battlefield” and “let Putin and autocracy prevail.”
Republicans in Congress have argued that they want more details about how money for Ukraine has been spent and how future money will be allocated. The letter attempts to address some of those concerns with a detailed accounting. But it leans more heavily on a newer argument that money for Ukraine is bolstering America’s own defenses — the “Bombenomics” pitch that the president also pushed in his October Oval Office address.
Some 60% of prior Ukraine spending stayed inside U.S. borders, going to the Pentagon, intel agencies or defense contractors, Young points out: “That has improved our own military readiness since DOD is buying new equipment to replace what we are sending Ukraine, jumpstarting and expanding production lines, and is supporting good-paying jobs in dozens of states across the country.”
Will any Republican skeptics be persuaded that they should support the Ukraine supplemental to boost jobs at weapons plants back home?
The administration is getting granular with this approach. Young says money to defend Ukraine (and Israel) will be used to acquire “air defense systems built in Alabama, Texas, and Georgia and vital subcomponents sourced from nearly all 50 states,” not to mention “Javelins made in Alabama; Guided Multiple Launch Rocket System (GMLRS) made in West Virginia, Arkansas and Texas; tactical vehicles made in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan and Indiana; and 155mm artillery shells made in Pennsylvania, Arkansas, and Iowa and many other states.”
That’s a lot of red and purple states.
In theory, the top Republicans in both chambers receiving Young’s letter support the additional resources for Ukraine. Speaker MIKE JOHNSON has twice voted against aid packages for Ukraine, but he’s now on record as a supporter — joining Senate Minority Leader MITCH McCONNELL.
But McConnell and Johnson also agree on tying Ukraine aid to new border security language, and the bipartisan talks among six senators on that subject appear to be moribund. One person briefed on the negotiations told Playbook last night that the talks were unlikely to yield any agreement this month.
The White House letter, which is silent on the border security side deal, is intended to keep the pressure up, as is Senate Majority Leader CHUCK SCHUMER’s plan to vote as soon as this week on the $106 billion Biden supplemental, which also includes funds for Israel and Taiwan. Absent the border security deal, Senate Republicans insist they will vote against it.
The path in the House is even more fraught. Republicans want more restrictive border language than their Senate colleagues, and Johnson has said he also wants to separate out the vote on a Ukraine-border security package from the portion of the supplemental that includes aid to Israel and Taiwan.
The math is more complicated in the House, too. McConnell only needs eight other Republicans to vote for a Ukraine-border security deal. How many of the 101 House Republicans who opposed the last Ukraine aid package will Johnson need? If he whittles the number down to a majority of the majority is that enough? Or would requiring Democratic votes to pass another controversial bill prove fatal to his speakership?
TRUMP TRIAL TRACKER — Will DONALD TRUMP be re-gagged this week? It’s been two weeks since a federal appeals court heard arguments about the gag order issued by Judge TANYA CHUTKAN in the Trump election subversion case in Washington. The order is not in effect as the appeals court weighs Trump’s bid to have it overturned. The judges, however, strongly suggested they would reinstate the gag order but with some tighter conditions.
There are some weighty constitutional issues at play, but it would be unusual for this appeal to drag on, given that the trial is set to begin in 91 days, on March 4. For those keeping score, Trump’s hush money trial in Manhattan is scheduled to start in 111 days, on March 25. Trump’s Florida trial related to secret documents kept at Mar-a-Lago is scheduled for May 20. The Georgia election subversion trial does not yet have a start date.
POLITICAL JARGON WATCH — There’s a new word you’re going to be hearing a lot of in Washington: “MAGAnomics.” Back in September, that’s what Biden started calling the GOP’s policy plans. It seems to have been dropped from the Biden lexicon in favor of pushing “Bidenomics.” But recently congressional Democrats and party strategists have expressed misgivings about branding the party with that awkward label. After all, if voters hate the economy, why tie Biden closer to it?
But while the use of Bidenomics has been ebbing, the use of MAGAnomics is on the upswing, including in a new memo the White House will release today attacking the GOP’s health care proposals: “By the numbers: the growing MAGAnomics threat of skyrocketing healthcare costs.” Our own by the numbers tally: Three mentions of MAGAnomics and only one mention of Bidenomics. Read the memo
Good Monday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line with your favorite political neologism: Rachael Bade, Eugene Daniels, Ryan Lizza.
WAKE UP, READ PLAYBOOK — We have an exciting update for Playbook readers: Starting Dec. 18, all Playbook subscribers will also receive Playbook PM every Monday through Friday. As a member of the Playbook community, you will get a double dose of scoops, storylines and analysis every weekday as we enter a newsy election year. No need to take action: You will receive your first PM edition on the 18th if you aren’t subscribed already. Thank you for being a part of the Playbook community.
FIRST IN PLAYBOOK: WATER UNDER THE MACKINAC BRIDGE — There are no permanent enemies in politics, the saying goes, but Republican consultant STU SANDLER appears to be testing the adage’s limits: He is now engaged as the general consultant for businessman SANDY PENSLER’s second Michigan Senate campaign just five years after repeatedly and publicly trashing Pensler’s first run while working for an opponent, Daniel Lippman reports.
Sandler, a partner at OnMessage and former NRSC political director, called Pensler a “tremendous candidate” and “the only candidate for US Senate in the Trump lane who can get on the ballot” in an online posting last week.
But five years ago, Sandler was singing a far different tune when he was working for then-rival JOHN JAMES in the 2018 Republican Senate primary. In a series of more than 20 tweets that have since been deleted, Sandler denounced Pensler as an anti-Trump “liberal who is trying to fool Republicans,” calling him “Pro-Choice Pensler” at one point and “Scared Sandy” at another, when the candidates were sparring over debates.
In an interview about his heel turn, Sandler compared the switch to SHAQUILLE O’NEAL or BRYCE HARPER switching teams mid-career. He called up Pensler several years ago, he said, and “we just got to know each other and it turned out he is a pretty good guy.” Pensler didn’t respond to a request for comment.
Sandler said that Pensler never asked him to apologize for what he had said: “He realized that as a professional, I had a job to do.”
THE WEEK — Tomorrow: FBI Director CHRISTOPHER WRAY appears before Senate Judiciary Committee. Assistant AG KRISTEN CLARKE testifies before House Judiciary Committee. House Ways and Means Committee holds hearing with HUNTER BIDEN whistleblowers. Biden travels to Boston for fundraisers. SEAN HANNITY holds a Fox News town hall with Trump in Davenport, Iowa. … Wednesday: Big-bank CEOs testify before Senate Banking Committee. Biden addresses second annual White House Tribal Nations Summit. Fourth Republican presidential debate is held in Tuscaloosa, Alabama. … Friday: November jobs numbers are released. Biden departs for campaign events in Las Vegas and LA. … Saturday: Houston mayoral runoff between Democrats SHEILA JACKSON LEE and JOHN WHITMIRE. Trump speaks at Turning Point USA’s winter gala at Mar-a-Lago.
On the Hill
The Senate will meet at 3 p.m. to take up IRMA CARRILLO RAMIREZ’s judicial nomination, with a vote at 5:30 p.m.
The House will meet at noon, with votes postponed to tomorrow. The Rules Committee will meet at 4 p.m. to take up a few bills, including legislation to roll back the Biden administration’s vehicle emissions standards and fiduciary conflict of interest rule.
3 things to watch …
- House GOP leaders signaled on Friday that they’re ready to formalize their impeachment inquiry into Biden with a floor vote as soon as this week. They’ll need near unanimity to do it, and some previously wishy-washy moderates are signaling they’re ready to get on board, citing alleged administration stonewalling. Expect a rolling informal whip count to develop through the week. More from WSJ
- Sen. TOMMY TUBERVILLE’s blanket hold on military nominations appears likely to come to an end this week, but exactly how remains in question. Among the options for the Alabama Republican, Burgess Everett reported last week, are limiting the holds to civilian nominees or shifting his anti-abortion efforts to the courts. Without a retreat, GOP defense hawks appear ready to join with Democrats to end the blockade by force. More from AP
- The Senate Judiciary Committee on Thursday managed to approve subpoenas for HARLAND CROW and LEONARD LEO in their probe of Supreme Court ethics practices — at least, that’s what Democrats say. Republicans are calling the vote “illegitimate” due to procedural faults, and with Leo already saying he won’t comply, the subpoenas could ultimately prove to be toothless. More from NYT
At the White House
Biden will receive the President’s Daily Brief in the morning, with VP KAMALA HARRIS also in attendance. Press secretary KARINE JEAN-PIERRE and JOHN KIRBY will brief at 1 p.m.
Harris and second gentleman DOUG EMHOFF will attend the White House Congressional Ball in the evening.
AMERICA AND THE WORLD
UNREST GROWS IN THE MIDDLE EAST — A U.S. Navy ship “shot down three drones during a sustained attack in the Red Sea on Sunday, the Pentagon said, in what could signal another escalation in the tit-for-tat attacks between the American military and Iranian-backed militants,” NYT’s Helene Cooper writes.
The U.S. is warning that its forces are considering “all appropriate responses” to the hostilities, “ramping up its rhetoric as Iran-backed militants continue to harass American and international interests in the region,” Lara Seligman writes. While DoD officials said they did not believe the militants were targeting the U.S. warship, the string of attacks on the commercial vessels “represent a direct threat to international commerce and maritime security,” Central Command said.
And as the conflict between Israel and Hamas continues on, Biden administration officials are starting to plan for “the day after” in Gaza as they hope for a resolution. But they’re “confronting problematic questions such as who runs the territory once the shooting stops, how it gets rebuilt and, potentially, how it eventually becomes a part of an independent Palestinian state — the stakeholders face a host of unattractive options,” WaPo’s Michael Birnbaum, William Booth and Hazem Balousha report from Tel Aviv.
On the ground, talks between Israel and Hamas over hostages stalled yesterday, according to the White House, “while Israeli forces step up attacks and direct Palestinians in the enclave to move into a narrower strip of land,” WSJ’s Stephen Kalin, Anat Peled, Summer Said and Dov Lieber write.
More top reads:
CONGRESS
THE TRUMP EFFECT — A lot of things about a second Trump term would drive a GOP Congress batty with near constant, uncomfortable questions about his erratic policy whims and political attacks. But for now, the conference is trying to put it out of sight and out of mind.
“Trump’s recent call to replace the Affordable Care Act is triggering a particularly unwelcome sense of deja vu within the GOP. Even as many Senate Republicans steered away from Trump over the past couple years, now they’re increasingly resigned to another general election that could inundate them with the former president’s often fact-averse and hyperbolic statements,”our colleagues Burgess Everett, Olivia Beavers and Meridith McGraw report.
One interesting split to watch: “Senate Republicans can win back the majority next year even if he loses the presidential election, given their red-leaning map. But in the House, Republicans’ future is more deeply intertwined with the vacillations of the mercurial ex-president. And many of Trump’s House GOP critics don’t even want to entertain the idea of trying to govern alongside him; in interviews, some simply shook their heads and furrowed their brows in feigned fatigue.
“‘Shit, yeah,’ Rep. DAVID JOYCE (R-Ohio) replied when asked whether his colleagues are worried about clashing with Trump. ‘The orange Jesus?’ he added with a laugh.”
More top reads:
- The row over Rep. MARJORIE TAYLOR GREENE’s (R-Ga.) impeachment effort against DHS Secretary ALEJANDRO MAYORKAS is the latest thread unraveling in Mike Johnson’s speakership, offering yet more evidence that he is “still learning how to wrangle the hardliners in his conference,” CNN’s Melanie Zanona, Manu Raju and Annie Grayer write.
- The fallout from GEORGE SANTOS’ unceremonious exit from Congress could come back at the ballot box next fall, but his fellow Empire State Republicans are racing to squash any possibility of that, AP’s Kevin Freking writes. In every vote to punish Santos, all five New York Republicans in battleground races have lined up against him.
2024 WATCH
DeSANTIS DOWNER — RON DeSANTIS crossed a key threshold in his campaigning this weekend, visiting the last of Iowa’s 99 counties — completing a promise that he laid out in a state that he has devoted an outsized portion of his time and resources to. But Trump was quick to douse the accomplishment, likening DeSantis’ campaign to a “very seriously wounded” bird. “In that way, the Florida governor’s moment, much like the months of campaigning so far, took place under Trump’s towering shadow,” AP’s Michelle Price and Thomas Beaumont write from Newton, Iowa.
THE ECONOMY
FACTORY RESET? — “Factory reopening could save this town, but many still bash the economy,” by WaPo’s Jeanne Whalen in Belvidere, Illinois: “Residents speak of being ‘over the moon’ and ‘in shock’ about the planned rebirth of the 60-year-old factory, thanks to a vigorous campaign by the United Auto Workers, the Biden administration and the state of Illinois. But they also express extreme grumpiness about the price of gas, utilities and rotisserie chicken. The conflicting attitudes help explain the uphill climb President Biden faces as he tries to convince voters that his economic leadership is working.”
Related read: “Goods Deflation Is Back. It Could Speed Inflation’s Return to 2%,” by WSJ’s David Harrison: “Economywide deflation, when prices of most goods and services continuously fall, isn’t in the cards. But economists say goods prices likely have further to fall, which will ease inflation’s return to the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, perhaps as early as the second half of next year.”
OUT AND ABOUT — The Kennedy Center Honors ceremony last night honored Billy Crystal, Queen Latifah, Renée Fleming, Barry Gibb and Dionne Warwick. The black tie event included speeches or performances by Robert De Niro, Jay Leno, Meg Ryan, Whoopi Goldberg, David Rubenstein, Bob Costas, Lin-Manuel Miranda, Rob Reiner, Kerry Washington, Sigourney Weaver, Christine Baranski, Missy Elliott and Michael Bublé, with Gloria Estefan returning to the event for the third time to host.
SPOTTED: President Joe Biden and first lady Jill Biden, second gentleman Doug Emhoff, Naomi Biden and Peter Neal, Secretary of State Antony Blinken, Supreme Court Chief Justice John Roberts, Justice Sonia Sotomayor, Sens. Ed Markey (D-Mass.) and Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.), Reps. Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), Patrick McHenry (R-N.C.), Darrell Issa (R-Calif.), Kelly Armstrong (R-N.D.) and Don Beyer (D-Va.), Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker, Karine Jean-Pierre, Heather Podesta and Stephen Kessler, Carol Melton, Doug Heye, Deborah Rutter, Jake Sullivan, Mike Donilon, Helen Milby, Steve Schwarzman, Bob Bakish, Dave Calhoun, Bret and Amy Baier, Kaitlan Collins, Robert Costa, Tammy Haddad, Norah O’Donnell, Tyler Grimm, John McCarthy, Jeremy and Robyn Bash, Jennifer Griffin, Susanna Quinn, Stephanie Cutter, Adrienne Elrod, Mitch Landrieu, Raj Shah, Walter Isaacson, Adrienne Arsht, Michael Hochman, Tom Friedman, Stuart and Gwen Holliday, Ryan Williams, Ziad Ojakli and Devon Spurgeon, Dan Glickman, Becca Glover, Daniel Lippman and Sophia Narrett, Michael and Nolan Greenwald, Matt Gorman, Kevin Latek and Dan Meyers, Alan Fleischmann and Dafna Tapiero, Eric Motley, Kent Knutson, Alyse Cohen, John and April Delaney and Patrick Steel and Lee Satterfield.
FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Lauren Gray is joining the Human Rights Campaign as SVP of comms and brand. She most recently was corporate and crisis lead for Out Front at Edelman.
TRANSITIONS — Brian Cress is now deputy director of member services for Speaker Mike Johnson. He previously was with the House Republican Conference and is a DOJ alum. … Marjorie Connolly is joining the Tech Oversight Project as a comms director. She’s a Capitol Hill, HHS and Protect Our Care alum.
WEEKEND WEDDINGS — Justine Morgan, VP at Rokk Solutions, and Matt Vigeant, assistant U.S. attorney in the D.C. U.S. attorney’s office, got married Saturday in Justine’s hometown of New Orleans. Pic, via Paul Morse … Another pic
— Brett Wakeman, chief of staff for Rep. Derrick Van Orden (R-Wis.), and Raychel Renna, regional political director at the NRCC, got married Saturday at a black-tie wedding at St. Peter’s Church, followed by a reception at the Perry Belmont House. They met working together for Rep. Claudia Tenney (R-N.Y.). Pic … Another pic … SPOTTED: Reps. Claudia Tenney and Derrick Van Orden, Tim Edson, Will Rosichan, Hannah Andrews, Spencer Carr and Kate Kelly.
WELCOME TO THE WORLD — Tommy Andrews, principal for public policy at Squire Patton Boggs and a Trump White House, Paul Ryan and John Boehner alum, and Mollie Thorsen Andrews, COO of Little Burros and U.S. director of advocacy and corporate engagement for the A21 Campaign, on Wednesday welcomed Thomas “Tommy” Stanford Andrews Jr., who came in at 9 lbs. Pic … Another pic
HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Reps. Grace Napolitano (D-Calif.), Kevin Hern (R-Okla.), Greg Landsman (D-Ohio) and Nancy Mace (R-S.C.) … The Boston Globe’s Jackie Kucinich … Suzanne Malveaux … NPR’s Danielle Kurtzleben and Ximena Bustillo … Al Hunt … Meg Badame … Sarah Paulos … POLITICO’s Jen Hurley … Amazon’s Rachael Lighty … Peter Freeman … Colin Rogero … Claire Lucas … Kevin O’Neill of Arnold & Porter … PBS NewsHour’s Anne Davenport … Sarah Baron of the Hub Project … Brian Svoboda … Chad Heflin … Mark Cowan of Cowan Strategies … Jennie Westbrook Courts of the Information Technology Industry Council … former Rep. Francis Rooney (R-Fla.) (7-0) … former Transportation Secretary Mary Peters … Meghan Patenaude Bauer … Matthew Bevens … Jon Fleischman … Andrew Shult of TAG Strategies … Koch Industries’ Nick Gass … Yana EEOC’s Mayayeva … Whitney Ksiazek … Campbell Marshall … Bob Mulholland … National Association of Hispanic Journalists’ David Peña Jr. … Tim Ranstrom
Send Playbookers tips to [email protected] or text us at 202-556-3307. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Mike DeBonis, deputy editor Zack Stanton, producer Andrew Howard and Playbook Daily Briefing producer Callan Tansill-Suddath.
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