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Nearly two-thirds of Latino voters in the United States supported Democratic candidates, while a third of that voter bloc supported the Republicans. The same trend was seen in Arizona, according to a poll released Thursday.
None of the races decided Friday night was bigger than the U.S. Senate contest between Mark Kelly and Blake Masters. In a race with national repercussions for which political party will control the Senate, Kelly retained the seat.
Additionally, Democrat Adrian Fontes, former Maricopa County recorder, was declared the winner in the secretary of state race over state representative and 2020 election denier Mark Finchem, R-Oro Valley.
Both wins announced Friday were a blow to Republican candidates and supporters who promised a “Red Wave,” particularly among Latino voters.
And as ballots continue to be counted across the state, key races for governor, secretary of state and superintendent are hanging in the balance.
Election Day coverage: Live voting updates | Arizona election results
Inflation, gas prices and reproductive rights were top-of-mind issues for Latino voters in Arizona during midterm elections, the poll shows. And despite high levels of concern, voters reported that the feeling of hopefulness was the number one emotion with which they voted in 2022, unlike in 2018 when they cast their ballot with anger.
Results of the 2022 Midterm Election Voter Poll, conducted by the African American Research Collaborative, were released on Thursday less than 48 hours after voting centers had closed and as state election officials worked around the clock to count all ballots. As of Saturday morning, an estimated 265,000 to 275,000 ballots remained to be counted in Maricopa County and 370,000 statewide.
Unlike exit polls conducted outside polling places to predict a winner, this poll was an exercise illustrating the deep research required to make inferences about political trends among the diverse Latino electorate, AARC researchers explained on Thursday during a virtual news conference.
More than 12,000 people were interviewed, most of them Latinos and Black people, to determine political tendencies at the national level and in key states.
Poll: Latinos, Black people tend to vote Democrat
The survey, which had a national sample of 5,200 Latino voters and 4,700 Black voters surveyed between Oct. 26 and Nov. 7, includes data from 10 states, among them Arizona, California and Florida.
Of those two groups, close to two-thirds of Latino voters and over 85% of Black supported Democrats, the poll found, while a majority of white voters tended to lean Republican.
The survey was sponsored by America’s Voice, Climate Power, First Nations Development Institute, The Immigration Hub, Indivisible, Latino Community Foundation, Mi Familia Vota Education Fund, Planned Parenthood Action Fund, RuralOrganizing.org, SEIU, UnidosUS and Voter Participation Center.
In Arizona, 400 Latinos were surveyed, most of whom have already participated in various elections in the United States.
Inflation, gas prices, mass shootings, health care costs, crime and affordable housing — in that order — were priority issues for Latino voters in Arizona during midterm elections, according to the survey.
The approval rating for Joe Biden was at 57% among Latinos surveyed in Arizona, while 43% disapprove.
In local and state elections in Arizona, 63% of Latinos surveyed said they had voted for Democrats, 36% for Republicans and 1% for another party. Similarly, in races to fill U.S. Congress seats, 67% of Latinos said they supported more Democratic candidates.
When asked if they were contacted by any political party during the Arizona election campaigns, 69% of Latinos surveyed said they were approached by Democrats, 43% by Republicans and 29% by nonpartisan organizations.
The survey did not address state measures that were at stake.
‘We know our vote is important’
Petra Falcon, director of Promise Arizona, a pro-immigrant organization based in Phoenix, has worked to civically engage the Latino community in Arizona for years. Promise Arizona connects people with resources to help them become citizens and soon after registered voters.
“We are at a point where the Latino, immigrant community in Arizona is growing, and the best thing about this is that we are voting,” Falcon said.
Falcon, who turns 79 this month, gave the example of her family that has six generations in the United States, including her 12 grandchildren, and everyone votes, she said. Since she was 18 years old, she exercises her right to vote.
“The reason why we are leading this election is because we want to improve the lives of our families. We think of our children, in their futures,” she said. “The education of our children, the economy, jobs, is something that worries us and we know our vote is important.”
For Clarissa Martinez De Castro, vice president of the UnidosUS Latino Vote Initiative, Latinos confirmed their fundamental role in shaping the political landscape of the United States, sending a wake-up call to both parties.
“Hispanic voters nationally largely reflected their historical pattern of two-thirds supporting Democrats, and one-third Republicans,” Martinez said. “Democrats have ample room to solidify and expand Hispanic support, but need to engage these voters more deeply, earlier, and strengthen their economic message.”
If Republicans seek to maintain or increase the support of this voting bloc, they must first understand that their platform is radically out of sync with Latino priorities in various areas, Martinez said, including abortion rights, gun violence and immigration issues.
AARC researchers said that the results from the survey largely point to a continuation of voting patterns among Latino voters, refuting the narrative that this voting bloc has shifted significantly to the right over the last six years.
The results show that 83% of Latinos surveyed support the Inflation Reduction Act. More than 90% support the possibility of Medicare negotiating lower prices for prescription drugs. Also, 75% of Latino voters support a ban on AR-15-style rifles nationwide.
In addition, Latinos are very supportive of protecting the right to abortion, and protecting the rights of undocumented youth, and their preferences are mostly focused on combating climate change, as well as making billionaires and corporations pay their fair share of taxes.
According to the survey, 82% of Latinos support a path to citizenship for Dreamers, those undocumented immigrants who were brought to the United States at a young age, many of whom are protected under the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA).
Activists: Time to ‘hold politicians accountable’
Sergio Gonzales, executive director of The Immigration Hub, said that around the election there were experts — not Latinos — who said that Latinos would vote for far-right Republicans.
“Latinos spoke for themselves: saying no to MAGA extremism; and casting decisive votes for candidates who ran on policies like a path to citizenship for Dreamers, farm workers, and undocumented essential workers,” said Gonzalez.
“Given that the federal courts are preparing to strike down DACA, stripping protections away from hard-working young people across the country, it’s now time for Congress to deliver for Latinos. Democrats need to show up for Latino families by protecting Dreamers and farm workers, and Republicans would be wise to walk away from the hate politics of Stephen Miller and Donald Trump that continue to repel Latinos in a big way.”
Vanessa Cárdenas, executive director of America’s Voice, said that opposing and even demonizing immigration has caused Republicans to “hit a wall” when seeking to attract the Latino vote.
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“Latino voters saw what we at America’s Voice saw, the shocking investment of Republican candidates in hateful and anti-immigration messages, often echoing the ‘invasion’ and ‘white replacement’ rhetoric of the nationalist right-wing,” Cárdenas said. “”By all indications, the economy and inflation were the key issues for voters this year, but Republican extremism and fear-mongering on border security and immigration hurt Republican candidates with Latinos and a lot of others outside of the MAGA base.”
For Héctor Sánchez Barba, executive director and CEO of Mi Familia Vota, now that Latinos have delivered by voting and influencing the midterm elections, it is time to take this to another level.
“This cycle, we showed up and made our voices heard at the ballot box. Now that we have done our part, we must move to hold politicians accountable for the policy priorities of our community,” said Sánchez. “Many Latinos support this and a pathway to citizenship for the 11 million undocumented citizens here. No more excuses; it’s time to get this done.”
Reach La Voz reporter Javier Arce at javier.arce@lavozarizona.com or on Twitter @javierarce33.
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