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You thought elections were over for a while, right? Nope. The new year will see quite a few hot races at home and across the nation.
In Louisiana, Democratic Gov. John Bel Edwards is completing his second term and can’t run again, which leaves a wide-open race. The field, however, was frozen when U.S. Sen. John Kennedy (R) said he was pondering a gubernatorial bid. Attorney General Jeff Landry (R) and independent Hunter Lundy are already running.
While Lt. Gov. Billy Nungesser (R) and Treasurer John Schroder (R) have seriously explored candidacies, they’ve lately seemed half in, half out; both must give up their current jobs to seek the governorship. Depending upon the eventual field, Baton Rouge area U.S. Rep. Garret Graves (R) could be a strong contender. A few local officials and legislators may jump in.
Shawn Wilson, Secretary of Transportation and Development, is a possible Democratic candidate. A Democrat who can win over most of Louisiana’s 944,000 Black voters has a good shot at making the runoff against multiple Republican candidates; winning the runoff against one Republican is another matter.
Final decisions will be made once Kennedy announces his plans, which is expected soon. Louisiana’s open primary is Oct. 14 and the runoff Nov. 18. Candidate qualifying is Aug. 8-10.
Gubernatorial contests will also be on the ballot in Kentucky and Mississippi.
Kentucky’s governor, Andy Beshear, is a 45-year-old Democrat and son of a former governor. He narrowly beat the GOP incumbent in 2019 and is seeking reelection in a state that has voted Republican in the last six presidential elections by margins of 15 to 30 points.
Last time, Beshear ran on health care, jobs and education. He campaigned hard in rural areas and won solid support from teachers and public employee unions. Democrats saw his campaign as a model for winning a red state. Says one Kentucky political operative, “He knows how to steal second and third base.” If Beshear is reelected, he’d be a national player.
Unlike Louisiana’s Democratic governor, who is famously pro-life, Kentucky’s Beshear supports abortion rights. Both states have legislatures controlled by big Republican majorities.
Though Beshear has sided with liberals on a range of issues, his personal appeal, adept handling of natural disasters and push for popular infrastructure projects has earned him surprisingly good job ratings in his conservative state. Expect Republicans to try to tie him to President Joe Biden and national Democratic policies.
Top Republican candidates include the state’s attorney general, Daniel Cameron, an African American who has Donald Trump’s support. Cameron set off nationwide protests in 2020 with his handling of the case involving the killing of Breonna Taylor. Also running is the wealthy former U.N. ambassador Kelly Craft and Agriculture Commissioner Ryan Quarles.
In Mississippi, Republican Gov. Tate Reeves is running for a second term. The GOP now controls all eight statewide offices in this red state, which has voted Republican in the last 11 presidential elections.
The 48-year-old Reeves is a staunch conservative and Trump supporter. In 2019, he won the governorship by a modest 52% to 47% margin over Democrat Jim Hood. Polling has shown Reeves may be vulnerable, with an approval rating below 50%.
Republicans eyeing a primary against Reeves include House Speaker Philip Gunn and Secretary of State Michael Watson. Bill Waller Jr., who once served on the state Supreme Court and is the son of a former Democratic governor, ran last time as a Republican and may run this time as an independent. Another independent candidate may be Vicksburg mayor George Flaggs. Public Service Commissioner Brandon Presley (distantly related to Elvis) may pick up the Democratic banner.
Last May, Reeves refused to rule out supporting a ban on birth control. He’s vetoed legislation to expand mail-in voting and no-excuse early voting and has opposed strict pandemic orders. He also signed a bill that removed the Confederate symbol from the Mississippi state flag.
In addition to these governorships, there will be mayoral elections across the nation. Chicago is always worth a look. Let’s not forget, too, there may be a special election for mayor of New Orleans in 2023 — that is, if the petition drive to recall incumbent LaToya Cantrell succeeds.
Stay Tuned.
Ron Faucheux is a nonpartisan political analyst based in Louisiana. He publishes LunchtimePolitics.com, a nationwide newsletter on polls and public opinion.
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