The Hispanic vote is up for grabs in 2024. Could a third party capture it?

Are Hispanics finding a new home in the Republican Party? You might think so based on recent elections.

In 2016, Donald Trump shocked me and the entire political world by gaining 29% of the Hispanic vote, far higher than most expected. That rose further to 37% in 2020, and it now sits at a once-unthinkable 42%, according to a recent polling average compiled by The Washington Post.

But not so fast. While many Hispanics are indeed leaving Democrats behind, they aren’t necessarily becoming loyal Republicans.

Trump’s Hispanic support looks less impressive when you consider that 70% of Hispanics disapprove of him. This means a significant percentage of his Hispanic voters are holding their noses. At the same time, 60% of Hispanics disapprove of Biden. Clearly, they have not found a home in either of the two parties.

This leaves me wondering: Could a third-party candidate — of the likes that No Labels is seeking to nominate next year — be the political answer that Hispanics are looking for?

One thing is clear: A third party can’t win without Hispanics. In fact, no party can.

Hispanics are the largest minority voting group, outnumbering African Americans and Asians combined. And not only are we continuing to grow, with 2,500 of us becoming eligible to vote every day, but our voter participation rate is also growing quickly, jumping by almost 10% from 2016 to 2020.

Yet neither party has managed to speak to us effectively. On one side, we are demonized; on the other, we are taken for granted.

One in 3 Hispanic voters say neither party cares enough about our demographic, according to an Axios-Ipsos Latino Poll, and Hispanics identify as independents at a significantly higher rate than the rest of the U.S. population — 52% compared with 42% — according to Gallup.

This creates an enormous opening for a candidate who is neither hard right nor hard left to capture our support, and No Labels is starting from a strong footing. The movement is built on the idea that the commonsense majority of Americans, of which Hispanics are a significant part, have been left behind by the two major parties. And they are right.

A No Labels candidate could win Hispanics over by overcoming the pitfalls that both major parties have fallen into.

For one, such a campaign could recognize that Hispanics are not single-issue voters. Yes, immigration is important. But polling shows that we care more about the economy, health care and national security. Our own United States Hispanic Business Council polling of Hispanics in key swing states during the 2022 midterms proved this, with 72% of respondents deeming the economy a “very important” issue and 67% doing the same for health care. In other words, we care about the issues all Americans care about.

There is something deeply distasteful about the way both parties equate us with immigration. The truth is, most Hispanics today are second- and third- generation Americans. This country is our home and has been our whole lives. Hispanic issues are American issues.

Could a No Labels candidate win our support by rising above the rampant pandering that both parties employ when courting Hispanics? Think of Trump sharing a photo of himself smiling over a taco salad on Cinco de Mayo, or Jill Biden saying that Latinos are as unique as “breakfast tacos.” I call this “hispandering,” and it makes it clear that neither party truly gets us.

No Labels has an opportunity to show that it understands us by simply speaking to us as Americans first and Hispanics second.

It can win us over by nominating a candidate focused on problem solving rather than division and party warfare. By considering a bipartisan ticket, which includes one Republican and one Democrat, No Labels is seeking to do just that.

Most Hispanics are part of that middle 50% of the country that is neither far left nor far right. We feel abandoned by the two parties as they both grow more extreme by the day. It’s no wonder that 65% of Hispanic voters rate the quality of political candidates on both sides as “poor” in recent years.

If the Democrat and Republican parties continue to advance candidates that majorities of Hispanics do not like, it may be up to No Labels to build a new political home for us.

Regardless of what happens, I believe Hispanics will decide the next presidential election. We are a large and growing community with a proven willingness to vote on our beliefs rather than party lines. Most in the media and politics are wondering whether we will choose Republicans or Democrats, but they should be asking themselves: What if we choose neither?

Javier Palomarez is the president and CEO of the United States Hispanic Business Council. He wrote this column exclusively for The Dallas Morning News.

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