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WASHINGTON — Democrats looking to regain long-lost political ground in the South have a unique opportunity this week: In Mississippi, of all places.
Democratic gubernatorial candidate Brandon Presley is making a surprisingly strong run at incumbent GOP Gov. Tate Reeves in one of the most Republican states in the nation, much less the South.
Presley, a member of the Mississippi Public Service Commission, is threatening an upset with the kind of campaign that many southern Democrats run these days: Play up economic issues for middle class voters, play down social issues like abortion and distance yourself from the national Democratic Party.
“This is not about politics − this is about people,” Presley said while promoting his key issue, expanding Medicaid benefits for lower-income people, during his one-and-only debate with Reeves last week.
The fact that the Democratic nominee is a distant cousin of Mississippi favorite son Elvis Presley hasn’t hurt his candidacy, though he remains an underdog to the incumbent Republican governor.
Reeves, who is seeking his second term in the Mississippi statehouse, is favored in part because he – like other Southern Republicans – has cast his opponent as a tool of national Democrats who support abortion rights and other policies rejected by conservatives from coast to coast.
“Joe Biden and his buddies have funded his campaign,” Reeves said last week during his debate with Presley, which was marked by insults and interruptions.
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Is Mississippi the next Georgia?
The off-year election in Mississippi comes as Democrats nationwide look for “the next Georgia”, a Republican-leaning Southern state that flips back to the Democrats, just as Georgia did in 2020 and 2022.
Mississippi is probably not the next Georgia. Reeves has a decent, if not overwhelming, lead in polls. A Real Clear Politics average of recent state polling gives Reeves a lead of 8 percentage points That’s not huge for a Republican in Mississippi.
Not everyone with eyes on the state is sure Reeves will clinch a victory. The Cook Political Report, citing interviews with party professionals, recently moved the race from “likely Republican” to “lean Republican.”
“Presley is the type of Democrat who can be competitive in Mississippi,” said Jessica Taylor, the Senate and Governors Editor at The Cook Political Report. “He’s been able to raise money to be competitive as well.”
Presley is also looking to increase voter turnout within the state’s large Black population.
“Black Mississippi and white Mississippi have been purposefully, strategically and with intent divided over racial lines,” Presley said at a campaign event last month. “Intentionally divided for two things: Money and power.”
Presley’s approach
On the campaign trail, Presley has zeroed in on Reeves’ opposition to expanding Medicaid, saying it has increased health care costs for thousands of Mississippians and threatens the closure of nearly three dozen rural hospitals.
“Tate Reeves didn’t open his mouth in this campaign about trying to help those hospitals until he got into a tight race, and he saw the polls tightening,” Presley said during the debate last week.
At the same time, Presley has made significant departures from other Democratic candidates across the country, emphasizing his opposition to abortion rights, except in cases of rape, incest or extreme medical emergencies.
Presley is also trying to carve out his own lane by appealing to moderate supporters of former Republican President Donald Trump. In the debate, he noted pro-Trump states like Oklahoma have expanded Medicaid programs.
But it’s not clear making a pitch to the former president’s supporters will work for the Democratic hopeful. Just hours before the debate between Reeves and Presley, Trump endorsed Reeves, tying Presley to President Joe Biden.
“Joe Biden wants to put his candidate and this is his candidate, Brandon Presley, in as Mississippi’s governor,” Trump said in a one-minute video endorsement. “The citizens of Mississippi must not let that happen.”
Reeves links Presley to Democrats
Reeves, for his part, has stressed tax cuts and business development during his campaign. He has said expanding Medicaid will damage the private insurance market and undercut coverage for thousands of state residents.
But the Republican governor has also long tried to connect Presley to national Democrats, who are anathema in large swaths of the South − and Mississippi in particular.
“If we were to turn Mississippi blue, we would never see another tax cut in the state of Mississippi,” Reeves said, during the debate.
During that event, Reeves also took aim at Presley’s appeal to Trump fans in Mississippi, balking at Presley’s argument that he represents a middle-of-the-road option for voters on both sides of the aisle.
“Donald Trump is only supporting the only conservative in this race,” Reeves said.
Democrats brace for Mississippi election after loss in Louisiana
Presley hasn’t taken the lead in the Mississippi race, just like most Southern Democrats in statewide races these days.
Take Louisiana, for example.
The Bayou State was also supposed to have a gubernatorial election this month. But Republican Jeff Landry won a mid-October primary with more than 50% of the vote, negating the need for a run-off for Mississippi’s neighbor.
Landry, currently the state’s attorney general, will replace a southern rarity: A Democratic governor.
John Bel Edwards served two terms as Louisiana’s governor. He stressed economic security issues and, as The Almanac of American Politics put it, “blurred distinctions with Republicans on social issues, supporting gun rights and opposing abortion.”
In office, however, Edwards didn’t do much to help develop the Louisiana Democratic Party, said Robert Mann, a veteran Democratic operative and professor of mass communications at Louisiana State University.
“It’s going to be a long hard slog to be competitive again in a governor’s race,” Mann said, adding: “It’s not going to be a competitive state in a presidential election any time soon.”
Mann himself represents the challenges that Democrats face in southern states.
Back in 2021, during the COVID pandemic, Landry called for Mann’s dismissal after the Louisiana State University professor criticized the attorney general for sending an aide to a university meeting to read a letter criticizing vaccines.
After Landry’s election as governor, Mann announced he will retire next year.
Democratic success in the South
Ahead of Election Day, Democrats can point to some victories in the South.
Kentucky also has a Democratic governor up for re-election this year, as Gov. Andy Beshear faces a tough challenge from Republican Daniel Cameron. But Beshear is a popular leader, and even Cameron in a TV spot admitted “Beshear is a nice enough guy.”
Mississippi has also seen Democratic governors in recent decades. Ronnie Musgrove served one term after winning election in 1999, but he lost his re-election bid to Republican Haley Barbour.
Then there’s Georgia, which is about South as it gets.
Democrats spent years rebuilding their party in the Peach State, and Biden’s victory there in 2020 helped him defeat Trump in the Electoral College. The Georgia race also became the subject of one of the criminal investigations into Trump. Earlier this year, an Atlanta grand jury indicted him on charges of trying to steal the 2020 election in the state.
And Georgia has elected two Democrats to the U.S. Senate in recent years, enabling the party to control the majority in the upper chamber.
An unclear path for Democrats
Georgia still remains an exception to the rule among largely conservative Southern states, though a different iteration of the Democratic Party once owned the “Solid South.”
Republican political dominance of the South has been an evolving process for more than a half-century. Signposts range from the Civil Rights Act and Barry Goldwater’s presidential campaign of 1964, to Richard Nixon and Ronald Reagan’s presidential campaigns, to the Newt Gingrich-driven GOP congressional wins of the 1990s.
Southern Republicans also prospered politically in reaction to the rise of feminism and a more secular society, historians say. They rode waves of support from the rise of religious conservatives, the Tea Party movement of the 2010s and the Trump campaign of 2016.
Angie Maxwell, director of the Diane Blair Center of Southern Politics and Society at the University of Arkansas, explained that Republicans have “spent time trying to figure out the cultural cleavages in the region.”
Maxwell, co-author of “The Long Southern Strategy: How Chasing White Voters in the South Changed American Politics,” said Mississippi is probably not the next Georgia. North Carolina is a better bet, Maxwell said, because like Georgia it has large urban areas and a well-educated professional class that are all trending Democratic.
“Some of these places, like North Carolina and Georgia, have been rebuilding for a long time,” she said. “It just takes time. It takes time.”
Still, Presley’s challenge indicates that Democrats have more of a fighting chance in the South.
“The fact that it’s even close is a huge shift in Mississippi,” Maxwell said.
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